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魏尚进：美国的经济衰退能终结贸易战吗？| 趋势
■本文选自《复旦金融评论》第06期
■作者：魏尚进 复旦大学泛海国际金融学院学术访问教授、哥伦比亚大学终身讲席教授
■公众号：复旦金融评论
美国下一次经济衰退的出现，或许是下一次塞翁失马的时刻。
本文共计3099字，预计阅读时长15分钟
魏尚进
复旦大学泛海国际金融学院学术访问教授、哥伦比亚大学终身讲席教授
美国总统唐纳德 · 特朗普（Donald Trump）领导的政府可能与历届总统不同，基因里没有国际合作的想法。但也难说，毕竟特朗普是在美国经济有些过热的时候发起了这轮贸易战。特朗普总统于2017年底推动国会通过了激进减税政策，使本来已经在强劲增长的经济得到了额外（不需要）的刺激。很多经济学家认为，美国与贸易伙伴之间的摩擦正在损害美国和全球经济。其实，这些摩擦反而可能正在帮助美国经济降温。这是美国政府目前不怕贸易战的重要原因之一。然而，如果经济衰退一旦出现，特朗普对中国的立场可能会变化。
有两股力量可能可以改变这样的结果。首先，中国也许不能或不愿实施经济刺激。中国政府目前的债务与GDP之比高于十年前。当年中国政府实施了一套激进的经济刺激计划，以抵消全球金融危机后出口需求不断走弱的影响。如果美国再次发生经济衰退，中国政府推行扩张性财政政策的能力或许今不如昔。
即便如此，中国的政府债务与GDP之比仍远低于大多数其他大中型经济体，这意味着政府在紧急的经济形势下实施额外财政刺激还有空间。此外，尽管中国央行已多次强调对于大规模注入流动性要谨慎，但商业银行还有相对较高的存款准备金率，这也意味着央行在必要的情况下有足够的弹药进行干预、扩大社会资金供应总量。
第二股力量是美国2017年的企业减税。这股力量将于短期与中期内持续扩大美国对中国的贸易逆差，在不知不觉中进一步损害双边关系。
美国的总体贸易逆差反映了国民储蓄相对于投资的短缺。2017年的减税计划将导致美国政府债务在未来十年再增加1~2万亿美元，从而使得本已为负的政府储蓄率继续恶化。由于减税不太可能通过国民投资的减少或私人部门储蓄的增加而抵消，因此减税会推高美国接下来几年的贸易逆差。今年美国的总体贸易赤字预计将超过2017年或2018年，而且这一趋势将会持续。
向上滑动阅览英文原文
Could a US Recession End the Trade War?
SHANG-JIN WEI
The recent inversion of the yield curve in the United States – with the interest rate on ten-year US government bonds currently lower than that on short-term bonds – has raised fears of a possible US recession in 2020. Yet, paradoxically, a downturn in America could help to improve bilateral economic relations with China and cool the two countries’ escalating trade dispute.Recent history offers grounds for such prediction. True, by reducing import demand, US recessions normally have a negative impact on economies with a high trade-to-GDP ratio, including China. However, in recent downturns, the US also has been more willing than normal to cooperate with China in order to try to spur recovery.During the last major US recession in 2008-2010, for example, China appeared to be the only major economy able and willing to boost global demand. Partly as a result of this, Sino-American ties improved, and the US even advocated giving China a greater voice in international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund and the G20.Similarly, US-China relations were at a low ebb in mid-2001, following a mid-air collision of a US reconnaissance plane and a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea, which resulted in the death of the Chinese pilot and the capture of the American crew. But after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks suddenly darkened the US economic outlook – according to the forecasts at the time by the International Monetary Fund and several investment banks – US-China economic ties improved.Unlike its predecessors, US President Donald Trump's administration may not have international cooperation in its DNA. But, tellingly, Trump initiated the current tariff war when the US economy was somewhat overheated, partly as a result of the aggressive tax cut that he pushed through Congress in late 2017. Frictions with America's trading partners, which many economists believe are damaging both the US and the global economy, may in fact be helping to cool down the US economy. Should a recession materialize, Trump's stance toward China may however soften.Two factors could derail this possibility. First, China may be unable or unwilling to provide economic stimulus. The Chinese government's debt-to-GDP ratio is higher today than it was a decade ago, when the authorities rolled out an aggressive stimulus package to offset weakening export demand in the wake of the global financial crisis. That fact would seem to limit the government's capacity to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy in the event of a US recession.Even so, China's debt-to-GDP ratio is still much lower than that of most other large economies, giving the government some room for additional fiscal stimulus in an economic emergency. Moreover, although the People's Bank of China is more cautious about injecting liquidity at will, the relatively high reserve ratio the PBOC imposes on commercial banks suggests that it would have significant firepower should the need arise.The second risk factor is the 2017 US corporate tax cut that enlarges America’strade deficit with China in both the short term and the medium term, further damaging bilateral relations.America's overall trade deficit reflects a shortage of US national savings relative to investment. By causing US government debt to increase by an additional $1-2 trillion over the next decade, the 2017 tax cut will make the government's savings rate substantially more negative. Because it is unlikely offset by a decrease in national investment or a large enough increase in private-sector savings, the tax cut has contributed to a higher US trade deficit. The overall deficit this year is projected to be larger than in 2017 or 2018, and this trend is set to continue.This strongly suggests that the US trade deficit with China will increase. With US politicians and much of the media evidently failing to recognize the connection between Trump's tax cut and the growing US trade deficit, they will most probably think the Chinese are doing something pernicious. For this reason, I have long argued that the US tax cut is a significant structural impediment to reducing America's trade deficit with China (and with many other trading partners), and therefore a likely source of tension over the next few years.Nonetheless, the US trade deficit (as a share of GDP) typically decreases as the American economy weakens, because import demand tends to fall as well. A US recession may, therefore, somewhat moderate the negative impact of the Trump tax cut on the trade deficit.More important, the Chinese government has itself cut taxes aggressively since the end of 2018, reducing value-added tax (from 17% to 16% and then to 13%), lowering the corporate income-tax rate, and decreasing the social-security contribution rate by employers.Because these recent tax cuts are unlikely to be offset by lower investment or a sufficiently large increase in private savings, China’s national savings rate will most probably decrease. As a result, the country’s overall trade surplus – which reflects its excess of savings over investment – probably will be far smaller in 2020, and may even slide into deficit in one or two quarters. Although China will almost certainly still run a bilateral trade surplus with America next year because of the effect of the US tax cut, the imbalance will be much smaller than otherwise would have been the case.While a US recession would be bad news for the global economy in terms of a direct demand channel, it could help to normalize the troubled relations between America and China. If the world’s two largest economies get along better, businesses and investors everywhere will breathe a sigh of relief. This may turn out to be a silver lining of the next US recession.-END-