乔什·勒纳：早期投资为何“猫冬”？| 对话

为什么说VC/PE对于新兴市场的影响更大？为什么VC/PE接纳新技术不是一朝一夕的事情？

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JOSH LERNER

FFR: What generally is the big picture for PE/VC in emerging and developed economies in recent decades?

Prof. Lerner: When we look at venture capital and private equity, the bulk of the money, with the exception of China, has gone into the developed economies.

China’s industry has risen up particularly first inprivate equity, then in venture capital. There was a huge boom of funding there. But we have seen in the last 12 months, the amount of venture capital has contracted quite dramatically in China. The reason for the boom and sudden bust is still unclear. It could be related to political reasons like the trade war. It could also reflect that there was a degree of over-heating of the venture market in China. When we look at venture capitals globally, we often phenomenon of overheating and pull-back. It’s like a pendulum of clock swinging back and forth, too far in either direction. So, it is part of the normal process of the development of venture capital.

FFR: Do you think PE/VC and FinTech will play a bigger role in economies like China where legal system and corporate governance are not very developed?

Prof. Lerner: Yes, definitely. We have already seen mobile technologies ended up incorporated in the financial systemin many developing economies in very dramatic ways, far more than in the United States. This is in a large way because the system got to be designed around it. There was a leap-frogging aspect to it. In the same way, in other new technologies, Chinese financial institutions and start-ups will be quicker in many cases to adopt them, because there is less of a legacy technology that they are depending on. They are not constrained by the past.

FFR: FinTech seems trendy around the globe. What are the general implications for PE/VC?

Prof. Lerner: Even though the venture firms and private equity firms have invested in technologies that have changed the world, they tend to be quite conservative about how they themselves are managed. Most of them have very established ways that haven’t changed dramatically. That is particularly true in United States. And this is also true in China. This is not to say that there haven’t been crowd-funding and other kinds of innovations. But the traditional venture capital and private equity funds have their own way of doing things.

These groups might be embracing some of these new technologies. But this is complicated because there are lots of regulatory barriers blocking the way.

One thing that is certain is that venture capitals and private equity firms have been very dramatically pushing FinTech forward. Some investments have not been huge successes because of government regulations. But venture capital has certainly been playing a very big role in FinTech’s development.

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